Abstract: Recurring refinery shutdowns in West Africa are frequently attributed to technical failures, aging infrastructure, or financing constraints. This article advances a governance-based explanation, arguing that procurement governance configurations rather than technical capacity alone systematically shape refinery operational fragility. Using an asymmetric comparative design, the study anchors empirical analysis in Ghana through survey-based Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) (n = 146) and extends interpretation to Nigeria through structured institutional analysis of publicly documented sector dynamics. Ghanaian results show that procurement challenges are strongly associated with refinery process disruptions (β = 0.482, t = 6.284, p < .001), while regulatory compliance has no statistically significant direct effect on refinery process outcomes (β = 0.074, t = 0.775, p = .438). Procurement processes, however, are strongly associated with sustainability outcomes (β = 0.555, p < .001). The model explains substantial variance in procurement’s operational role (R² = .467). The Nigerian case reveals a different institutional pathology politicized governance and policy volatility producing historically similar outcomes, although recent large-scale refining investments have begun to alter the landscape. Drawing on transaction cost economics and institutional theory, the article conceptualizes “compliance without performance” as a recurring governance failure mode and proposes procurement-centered reforms for capital-intensive industries.
Keywords: procurement governance; refinery shutdowns; institutional weakness; regulatory compliance; Ghana; Nigeria; downstream petroleum

Downloads: | DOI: 10.17148/IARJSET.2026.13101A