From Policy to Plant Shutdown: Procurement Governance and Refinery Operational Fragility in Ghana and Nigeria

Abstract: Recurring refinery shutdowns in West Africa are frequently attributed to technical failures, aging infrastructure, or financing constraints. This article advances a governance-based explanation, arguing that procurement governance configurations rather than technical capacity alone systematically shape refinery operational fragility. Using an asymmetric comparative design, the study anchors empirical analysis in Ghana through survey-based Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) (n = 146) and extends interpretation to Nigeria through structured institutional analysis of publicly documented sector dynamics. Ghanaian results show that procurement challenges are strongly associated with refinery process disruptions (β = 0.482, t = 6.284, p

Keywords: procurement governance; refinery shutdowns; institutional weakness; regulatory compliance; Ghana; Nigeria; downstream petroleum