Abstract: This research investigates the effectiveness of Rollover Analysis as a predictive tool for short-term price movements in the Indian stock futures market. Focusing on a selected group of high-rollover occurrence stocks over the period from 2018 to 2025, the study applies a quantitative, predictive methodology using secondary data sourced from credible financial platforms. The analysis evaluates the success rate and profitability of the rollover pattern characterized by a bullish candlestick formation—to assess its reliability for traders employing "buy today, sell tomorrow" strategies. Key metrics such as win/loss ratios, profit distributions, and stock-specific performance are derived through back testing across multiple years. The findings indicate that while the overall success rate hovers around 48.6%, strategic application of rollover signals in trending markets yields significant profits, particularly in highly liquid and institutionally favored stocks.

The research methodology incorporates predictive analytics and a deductive approach, drawing from historical rollover occurrences and assessing their impact on next-day futures returns. The data cleaning process, normalization of variables, and exploratory data analysis formed the foundation for the statistical interpretation. Performance is evaluated based on metrics such as total profitability, average profit per trade, and year-wise profit/loss trends. Three stocks selected for detailed analysis exhibited varying degrees of responsiveness to rollover signals, highlighting both the potential and the limitations of the strategy.

Results suggest that rollover analysis is more effective during trending market phases and when combined with additional technical indicators such as moving averages or relative strength index (RSI). Liquidity and institutional participation emerged as critical factors influencing the success of the pattern. Stocks with higher open interest and clearer rollover trends tended to deliver more consistent results, while mid-cap or volatile stocks showed mixed outcomes.

The study concludes that rollover analysis, when used with discipline and supplemented by robust risk management, can be a valuable decision-making tool in futures trading. It offers a systematic framework to identify bullish momentum and improve entry timing. Investors and traders looking to enhance their short-term strategies may benefit from incorporating rollover behavior into their broader analytical toolkit. Moreover, the research opens avenues for further exploration using automation and machine learning to refine the predictive models.

Keywords: Rollover Analysis, Futures Market, Indian Stock Market, Predictive Analytics, Technical Analysis

| DOI: 10.17148/IARJSET.2025.12518